Early predictors of severity of acne vulgaris.

Eight hundred and seventy one girls (439 black and 432 white) from public and parochial schools, representing diverse socio-economic groups, were recruited for this study, as a part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Growth and Health Study from 1987 through 1991. The annual examinations included age, date of onset of menarche, severity of acne and anthropometric measurements. Serum levels of sex steroid hormones testosterone-estrogen binding globulin (TEBG) were measured at 1,3 and 5 years of the study. Facial comedonal and nodular inflammatory lesions were recorded as mild (up to 10 lesions), moderate (11-25 lesions) and severe (more than 25 lesions) by one trained observer. Lesion counts were assigned numeric values of 5 for mild, 17 for moderate and 25 for severe disease. Final analysis was based on severity of acne recorded at fifth year of the study. Regression models were fitted by means of the generalized estimating equation of Liang and Zeger to VOLUME 34-AUGUST 1997